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Hindsight Bias

Page history last edited by renita.c.mason@... 9 years, 4 months ago



What is the Hindsight Bias? 



     Have you ever found out the ending to a situation and thought to yourself, "I knew that was going to happen!"  If you have, you were probably experiencing the hindsight bias.  The hindsight bias is an overconfidence that we could have predicted a particular outcome. It occurs when an event has happened , and we say that the event was unavoidable because we knew it was going to happen all along.  A person might say that they actually knew the outcome of an event was going to happen even though it had already occurred.  In all reality, events are usually very unpredictable which causes us to experience the hindsight bias often. 


     People experience this phenomenon all the time. It can happen with everyday events and even with major ones.  The hindsight bias also demonstrates that we often reconstruct the past so that it matches our present knowledge.  For example, people may put blame on a victim by saying that the outcome was inevitable based on the individual's earlier actions, when in fact the person's actions could have been appropriate.  Another example is war.  War is very unpredictable, yet many times we still say, "I knew that would happen eventually."   Many studies have been conducted to prove the hindsight bias and despite so much research, the explanations for the hindsight bias are still unclear.  It is hard to overcome this bias because predicting an outcome of an event is not as obvious as it seems. 








Is it obvious study? 

This is an article explaining a study of obviousness versus non-obviousness pertaining to the hindsight bias.


"You should have known all along" 

This page applies the definition of hidsight bias to the court room.


"Learning to expect the unexpected" 

This website describes a philospher's approach to the hindsight bias.


Terroism and War 

This is a news article describing how the hindsight bias effects terroism and war.


Hindsight Bias causes excuse for eating disorder

This is a blog by a young girl that describes how she experienced the hindsight bias when seeing a therapist.


Hindsight Bias in Conversation 

This site breaks down a conversation to show different biases that are used, including the hindsight bias!


Hindsight Quotes 

This site lists quotes on hindsight and the hindsight bias.


"I knew it all along... Didn't I?"

This site explains some of the factors that may contribute to hindsight bias.


What is Hindsight bias

This is an article by a woman explaining what hindsight bias is and a few everyday examples of the phenomenon.


Hindsight Bias: The reason hindsight is 20/20

This article gives an understanding of hindsight bias when dealing with the financial world and investments. 


Why our hindsight bias really matters

This site explains some reasons as to why hindsight bias is important in overcoming initial judgments.


Faulty decision making

This article summarizes hindsight bias and what to do to avoid it and avoid bad decisions.


Hindsight bias case study: Shooting D.C.'s post partum, mad-dog driver

This article is about the shooting of a woman in D.C. by secret service agents and the reactions and comments of people about what should have happened. 


Why Hindsight bias can damage Foresight

This is an article of how hindsight can hinder our ability to learn and improve from our past forecasting errors.


Reducing 20/20 Hindsight bias

This is about a certain study that had to do with hindsight bias and why the bias had occurred.  It also explained some reasons as to how hindsight bias can be reduced or avoided.


Monday Morning Quarterbacking: The Case of the Hindsight Bias

This article states how hindsight bias can occur in the sports category.  How when some games don't turn out a certain way, people may say they knew the player or the coach should have done a certain thing that could have prevented it.


That Guy Won? Why We Knew It All Along

This article is about the presidential election back in 2012.  This is about how some people may claim they knew the results that had occurred, was going to occur.


This website was created by Kaitlin Phillips.  To my knowledge, none of the photos violate any copyright laws.  However, if there is a problem, you should contact me at kaitlin.d.phillips@live.mercer.edu


This website was further edited by Renita Mason. 


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